Asian Cup match prediction case study

International football tournaments are notoriously difficult to predict. This case study will apply two different predictive models to the upcoming Asian Cup to see how accurately they can predict matches with limited data, and whether they can be used to find an edge over bookmakers.

Does increased possession equate to a better chance of winning?

Possession has become one of the most contentious of the newly available range of soccer statistics that are regularly quoted in live match analysis. It is generally assumed that enjoying more possession is a positive, but does this assumption hold water, and to what degree should bettors use possession stats in handicapping a teama��s ability to win games?

Are Referees Bias?

Are referees really bias? Do they ever really favour one team over another? In this article we will discover exactly how much influence referees have over football matches and try to explain what factors may be at play that causes referees to lean one way or another.

How valuable are direct shots from a free kick?

A soccer teama��s quality is most conveniently measured by the rate at which they score and concede goals. Goal difference shows a strong correlation to overall success as measured by league position or points accrued per game and Poisson based approaches can be used as a basis to predict future score lines and ultimately match odds.

Is it better to take penalties first or second?

With knockout style tournaments like the World Cup looms the threat of the dreaded penalty shootout. This article examines the game theory involved with penalties and examines whether or not it favours a team to go first or second in a shootout.