After a long wait the Asian Cup finally kicks off this Friday in Melbourne as hosts Australia face Kuwait. As part of our football predictive model case study we preview each of the opening round Asian Cup matches to see who we, and the bookmakers think will win each of the matches in Groups A and D.

Don’t forget to read our introductory article about the case study, and check back regularly to not only see how our predictions compare, but for our predictions for all group phase matches.

Australia v Kuwait match prediction

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Friday 9 January, 7:30pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Australia 0.48 78% 1.27
Draw x x 5.58
Kuwait 0.44 22% 14.49
Prediction Australia Australia Australia

Unsurprisingly at home against minnow Kuwait the Socceroos are strong favourites to claim victory in the opening match of the tournament. Rated $1.28 through our Elo Ratings it seems as though the bookmakers agree with our two model’s assessment of the match.

Korea Republic v Oman match prediction

Canberra Stadium, Saturday 10 January, 4:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Korea Republic 0.55 60% 1.57
Draw x x 3.90
Oman 0.43 40% 7.08
Prediction Korea Republic Korea Republic Korea Republic

Again all signs point to the favourites in the second match of Group A. Interestingly, South Korea had the best TSR from all 8 teams in our case study, but the third best Elo Rating, suggesting that their recent shots may have come either in losses, or against weak opposition. Rated at $1.66 by our model they seem overvalued by Pinnacle.

Japan v Palestine prediction

Newcastle Stadium, Monday 12 January, 6:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Japan 0.54 90% 1.15
Draw x x 8.33
Palestine 0.45 10% 22.57
Prediction Japan Japan Japan

Qualifiers Palestine aren’t expected to trouble reigning Asian Champions Japan. Amazingly the Blue Samurai are actually a value bet at $1.15 with Pinnacle according to our Elo Ratings.

Jordan v Iraq prediction

Brisbane Stadium, Monday 12 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Jordan 0.45 51% 3.12
Draw x x 2.97
Iraq 0.44 48% 2.64
Prediction Jordan Jordan Iraq

In a match that is likely to decide who progresses to the elimination stage of the tournament, both of our models are predicting a victory to Jordan by the slightest of margins. Rated a $1.96 chance Jordan do seem value but there is so little between the teams it is hard to recommend betting on them in the first test of whether our models are better at predicting winners than the bookmakers.

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