We quickly move onto the final round of the group stage of our tournament betting case study with some close and heavyweight clashes. Don’t forget to read our introductory article, and our previews for round 1 and round 2 of the tournament so far.

Results so far

Match TSR Prediction Elo Prediction Bookmaker Prediction Winner
Australia v Kuwait Australia Australia Australia Australia
Korean Rupublic v Oman Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic
Japan v Palestine Japan Japan Japan Japan
Iraq v Jordan Jordan Jordan Iraq Iraq
Australia v Oman Australia Australia Australia Australia
Korean Rupublic v Kuwait Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic
Palestine v Jordan Jordan Jordan Jordan Jordan
Iraq v Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan
x x x x x
Total Correct 7/8 7/8 8/8 x

Asian Cup round 3 predictions

Australia v Korean Republic prediction

Brisbane Stadium, Friday 17 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Australia 0.52 66% 2.02
Draw x x 3.14
Korean Republic 0.56 47% 4.14
Prediction Korean Republic Australia Australia

Its the clash everyone had circled in their calendar as soon as the groups were announced for the tournament and hosts Australia face fellow Asian heavyweights the Korean Republic. This game is the first with different teams with higher TSR and Elo Ratings. This is also the first match with a major difference in the Elo win expectancy and prices available from bookmakers, however they do agree that Australia should win the match.

Oman v Kuwait prediction

Newcastle Stadium, Friday 17 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Oman 0.40 52% 2.36
Draw x x 3.27
Kuwait 0.44 48% 3.33
Prediction Kuwait Oman Oman

Again the TSR and Elo Ratings differ in their highest ratings, while the Elo win expectancy and bookmakers agree. With both teams without a point it the match has no impact on the group results however will certainly help to separate our two models.

Japan v Jordan prediction

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Tuesday 20 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Japan 0.56 78% 1.353
Draw x x 5.120
Jordan 0.48 22% 10.450
Prediction Japan Japan Japan

Both teams will be desperate to win their final match, for Japan a win locks up 1st place in the group, while a win for Jordan will keep them in contention for 2nd place. Again there seems to be value for the favourite, rated at $1.28 by the Elo win expectancy.

Iraq v Palestine prediction

Canberra Stadium, Tuesday 20 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy Pinnacle
Iraq 0.44 78% 1.256
Draw x x 6.400
Palestine 0.34 22% 12.800
Prediction Iraq Iraq Iraq

Iraq are strong favourites to claim their second win of the tournament against Palestine. The bookmakers have them priced very similar to our Elo win expectancy.

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