One round down and we are quickly onto the second round of matches for the 2015 Asian Cup. In this article we will post an update on our match prediction case study and see how our predictions have fared so far and look forward to the next four matches.

Results so far

Match TSR Prediction Elo Prediction Bookmaker Prediction Winner
Australia v Kuwait Australia Australia Australia Australia
Korean Rupublic v Oman Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic
Japan v Palestine Japan Japan Japan Japan
Iraq v Jordan Jordan Jordan Iraq Iraq
x x x x x
Total Correct 3/4 3/4 3/4 4/4

The first round of matches went largely to script for both groups as three of the tournament heavyweights faced off with minnows. Bookmakers Pinnacle Sports correctly found the winner in all four matches which was an impressive start. Both the TSR and Elo rating incorrectly selected Jordan to defeat Iraq, however there was very little difference between both sides ratings.

The only value bet identified by the Elo ratings was a winner with Japan easily accounting for Palestine.

Asian Cup round 2 predictions

Korean Republic v Kuwait match prediction

Canberra Stadium, Tuesday 13 January, 6:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Korean Republic 0.56 69% 1.452
Draw x x 4.450
Kuwait 0.43 31% 8.570
Prediction Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic

No surprises with both models and bookmakers all expecting a win for the Koreans in their second match in Canberra in four days. The current price available with Pinnacle Sports is exactly the same as the Elo win expectancy, while they have a much higher TSR than Kuwait who were brave in the tournament opener.

Australia v Oman match prediction

 Stadium Australia, Tuesday 13 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Australia 0.49 78% 1.375
Draw x x 4.970
Oman 0.42 33% 9.780
Prediction Australia Australia Australia

At their current price of $1.38 hosts Australia are providing value according to the Elo win expectancy. The Socceroos also have the higher TSR. Oman were impressive in their opener against Korea, however are given little chance against the hosts by bookmakers.

Palestine v Jordan match prediction

 Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, Friday 16 January, 6:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Palestine 0.37 27% 9.190
Draw x x 4.279
Jordan 0.45 73% 1.454
Prediction Jordan Jordan Jordan

Another strong favourite with qualifiers Palestine meeting Jordan who went down in a close encounter with Iraq in their first match of the tournament. Rated a $1.37 chance by our Elo Rating, Jordan are value at the $1.454 currently available with Pinnacle Sports.

Iraq v Japan match prediction

 Brisbane Stadium, Friday 16 January, 8:00pm (local time)

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Iraq 0.45 33% 11.000
Draw x x 4.750
Japan 0.56 67% 1.370
Prediction Japan Japan Japan

Tournament favourites Japan meet first round winners Iraq in the final match of the second round. All signs point to another victory by Japan, however the Elo Ratings suggest it could be a much closer affair that the bookmakers are predicting.

Rated a $3 chance by our model, Iraq seem great value at $11 (however are not a suggested bet as our model does no include the draw), while Japan are currently overvalued with our model rating them at $1.49.

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